Forecast: Even more deadly, fiery and uncomfortable extreme weather
FILE - A person cools off amid searing heat that was forecast to reach 115 degrees Fahrenheit on July 16, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona.
WASHINGTON - Two of the world’s top weather agencies are warning that the next five years are likely to bring more record-breaking heat, pushing the planet toward more extreme and deadly weather events.
In a new five-year outlook, the World Meteorological Organization and the UK Met Office say there’s an 80% chance that the Earth will experience its hottest year on record before 2030. Even more alarming: there’s a 70% chance the five-year average will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7°F) of warming since pre-industrial times — the threshold set by the Paris climate agreement.
What this means for the US and the world
Big picture view:
Rising global temperatures increase the likelihood of:
- Deadly heat waves and heat-related illnesses
- Intensified wildfires in dry regions like the American West
- Stronger hurricanes, fueled by warmer oceans
- Heavier rainfall and flash floods
- More prolonged droughts
How close are we to dangerous warming thresholds?
While last year hit the 1.5°C mark, the Paris agreement requires a 20-year average to officially surpass that level. Still, scientists say we’re now hovering around 1.4°C above 1800s levels — and could cross 2°C in a single year as early as the late 2020s.
There’s now an 86% chance that at least one of the next five years will cross 1.5°C the agencies speculated.
What they're saying:
"This isn’t just about warmer days," said Chris Hewitt, director of climate services at the WMO told the Associated Press. "It’s about more lives lost, more disasters, and more instability around the globe."
Cornell climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, who was not involved in the report, added, "Higher global temperatures translate to more extreme weather — stronger hurricanes, stronger precipitation, and more droughts."
UK Met Office researcher Richard Betts said more people than ever will face severe health risks unless better heat protection is implemented.
What's next:
Scientists liken the trend to an escalator: natural events like El Niño cause temporary spikes, but the global baseline keeps rising. Even after the temporary effects wear off, the planet doesn’t cool back down.
"Record temperatures immediately become the new normal," said Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson.
The Source: This article is based on reporting from the Associated Press, with climate forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization and the U.K. Met Office. This story was reported from Los Angeles.