Prediction markets vs. polls: What are they saying about the 2026 midterms?

Prediction markets and traditional polls offer different snapshots of the 2026 midterm elections. While polls measure how voters say they plan to vote, prediction markets reflect traders’ expectations about which candidate or party will ultimately win.

Prediction markets vs. polls 

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Prediction markets and traditional polls measure elections in very different ways.

Polls ask a sample of voters who they plan to support. When conducted by reputable organizations, polls use established methods designed to represent the broader electorate. Polls can be inaccurate, but they are based on voters’ reported opinions.

RELATED: 2026 midterm elections: 21 key House races to follow

Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, allow people to buy and sell contracts tied to election outcomes. The odds reflect how much bettors are willing to pay based on their predictions about who will win. In other words, prediction markets show what bettors think will happen — not necessarily what voters say they will do.

Here are what prediction markets and polls are saying for some of the top key races:

North Carolina senate race

Georgia senate race

Ohio senate race

Texas senate race

Maine senate race

Michigan senate race